αQuant7Alpha

strategy · s7 ava · prediction markets

adaptive venue arbitrage
on binary outcome markets.

S7 trades binary outcome markets on Polymarket (Polygon CLOB, USDC-settled, EIP-712 signed) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US event exchange, USD-settled, RSA-PSS signed). Five engines harvest different edges: latency, market-making rebates, cross-venue divergence, intra-market dislocations, and news-sentiment fair value. Markets settle on resolution, not on continuous price exit — so cycles are weekly and the gate is inventory-aware.

cycle RX01 · produced 2026-05-15 12:00 UTC · 16 configs · 5 engines · 2 venues

⚠ synthetic data · live trading not authorized

S7 RX01 runs on a synthetic market provider and a synthetic sentiment generator. All param fingerprints carry the | SYNTHETIC_SENTIMENT_RX01 suffix. No config is promotable to live trading from this cycle. Engines E2 (MM_REBATE) and E4 (INTRA_ARB) are SD-06 FATAL by design on synthetic data — no order acks exist to validate fills.

deliverables · S71 of 1
—Pine v6
—NinjaScript C#
✓Python
documentation pack · S75 artifacts required
  • ✓available

    Whitepaper

    Q7_PRISM_Requirements_S7_PredictionMarkets_v1.0.pdf in OneDrive 15 NEW S7

  • ○pending

    Standing requirements

    Standing requirements doc not yet authored

  • ◐partial

    Live heatmap

    RX01 stub fixture — real heatmap when Calibration emits

  • ○pending

    Calibration matrix

    Calibration_Matrix_S7.xlsx not yet built (per standing rule #138)

  • ○pending

    Change / defect / repair log

    Not yet built — S7 first cycle pending

total
16 /16
passing
2 /16
marginal
0 /16
critical
7 /16
fatal · sd-06
0 /16
held
5 /16
dropped
2 /16

five engines.

full methodology →
E1 · LAT_ARBrx01 live

Latency Arbitrage

Acts on Polymarket CLOB updates faster than slower participants

alloc
10%
kelly
0.25
E2 · MM_REBATEsd-06 synth

Market-Making Rebate Harvest

Quotes both sides of binary outcome books to capture maker rebates

alloc
45%
kelly
0.10
E3 · X_VENUE_ARBsd-06 synth

Cross-Venue Divergence

Captures price divergence between Polymarket and Kalshi on linked markets

alloc
20%
kelly
0.50
E4 · INTRA_ARBsd-06 synth

Intra-Market YES/NO Dislocation

Arbitrages YES + NO prices when their sum diverges from 1.00

alloc
10%
kelly
0.50
E5 · NEWS_NLPrx01 live

News-Sentiment Fair Value

Bets on event markets where news sentiment diverges from implied probability

alloc
15%
kelly
0.25

sixteen configs · last cycle

heterogeneous · not a grid
idmarket familyvenuetfenginestradesinv·losspnlstatus
C01BTC up/downPolymarket5ME1 E2 E43121.8%+$428.40passingdetail →
C02BTC up/downPolymarket15ME1 E2 E41985.2%$-42.10criticalSD-13detail →
C03BTC up/downPolymarket60ME2 E40——droppeddetail →
C04BTC up/downPolymarket1DE2 E5476.1%$-18.85criticalSD-13detail →
C05ETH up/downPolymarket5ME1 E2 E42871.9%+$389.20passingdetail →
C06ETH up/downPolymarket15ME1 E2 E41745.8%$-31.55criticalSD-13detail →
C07ETH up/downPolymarket60ME2 E40——droppeddetail →
C08ETH up/downPolymarket1DE2 E5396.7%$-22.40criticalSD-13detail →
C09SOL up/downPolymarket5ME1 E21565.4%$-28.60criticalSD-13detail →
C10SOL up/downPolymarket15ME1 E21125.9%$-24.85criticalSD-13detail →
C11FOMC rate decisionKalshiEVENTE2 E50——helddetail →
C12CPI surpriseKalshiEVENTE2 E50——helddetail →
C13NFP printKalshiEVENTE2 E50——helddetail →
C14US electionPolymarket + KalshiEVENTE3 E50——helddetail →
C15GeopoliticsPolymarketEVENTE5227.2%$-11.30criticalSD-13detail →
C16NFL gamePolymarket + KalshiEVENTE30——helddetail →

pass criteria · weekly gate

Different gate shape from S1-S6 — adds inventory-resolution loss and signature-reject ceilings unique to prediction markets.

hit rate
≥ 55%
sharpe
≥ 1.50
profit factor
≥ 1.15
trades / month
≥ 60
max drawdown
≤ 25%
fee / gross
≤ 30%
inv·loss weekly
≤ 5.0%
sig·reject rate
≤ 0.50%